The relevance of determining the region of extreme subsidence during hydrocarbon production is well known. The necessity of detailed examination of deformation, causing disastrous events in the process of hydrocarbon extraction on the territory of oil and gas deposits and the determination of the most active zone within significant subsidence territory are approved by numerous researches. Various sources of information are used to identify the boundaries of the danger zone. In the proposed article, it is recommended to use the method of building a geological-mechanical model, which provides additional information about this problem and gives an overall picture of the process of subsidence. The suggested method allows not only to save material resources for organization of special monitoring measurements, but to provide preliminary estimation of the maximum subsidence rate at a particular land plot. The article proposes a variant of the method for calculating land subsidence using the Knothe model, which does not require extra information about reservoir but enables to determine preliminary positions of the so-called "critical" subsidence profile points of oil and gas deposits. Calculations have been made at a particular field to discuss the characteristics (geometric and geological) of the oil reservoir affecting the parameters of the subsidence profile. Confirmation of the reliability of the proposed methodology is the results of calculating the subsidence by finite element method (FEM) and geodetic data at the Lagunillas oilfield in Venezuela. The importance of the information obtained for predicting the sections of the maximum rate of the subsidence follows from the experience of earlier performed seismic research.