A geographic information system for predicting the risks of space weather impacts on railway infrastructure facilities

Geographic Information Systems

UDC:

004.95

DOI:

10.22389/0016-7126-2026-1035-9-28-39

1 Vorobev A.V.

2 Soloviev A.A.

Year:

2026

№:

1035

Pages:

28-39

Russian University of Transportation

1,

RAS Geophysical Center

2,

Abstract:

A geographic information system was developed for proactive forecasting of space weather impact risks on railway infrastructure facilities. The scientific novelty of the solution lies in the geospatial coupling of the OVATION Prime empirical auroral oval model with a digital map of Russia's railway network and ranking geomagnetic threat zones. The oval localization is used as a proxy for identifying areas of maximum geomagnetic hazard and geomagnetically induced current generation. The system architecture implements an end-to-end processing from streaming data on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters provided by the Space Weather Prediction Center to a risk map, with a time delay of approximately 90 s. The time between the solar wind passing the first Lagrange point and the delivery of the spatial modeling result is up to 15 minutes. The spatial resolution is 0,25° × 0,25°. Verification of the system against all-sky camera data showed an overall forecast accuracy of 77 % with a Type I error of 14 %. It was found out that under an extreme geomagnetic threat (Kp = 9), the risk zone covers sections as far south as the South-Eastern and South Ural railways, with the frequency of such events reaching three to four per eleven-year solar cycle. The practical significance is confirmed by a working prototype and the opportunity to scale the system to other spatially extended critical infrastructure facilities

Keywords:

auroral oval, geographic information system, geomagnetic hazard, geomagnetically induced currents, railway infrastructure, risk forecasting, space weather

This work was conducted within the framework of Russian transport university state funding No. 103-00001-26-00 from 15.01.2026. We utilized data and services provided by the Analytical Center for Geomagnetic Data at the GC, RAS (https://clck.ru/3WHsXV)

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Citation:

Vorobev A.V.,

Soloviev A.A.,

(2026) A geographic information system for predicting the risks of space weather impacts on railway infrastructure facilities. Geodesy and cartography = Geodeziya i Kartografiya, 87(9), pp. 28-39. (In Russian). DOI: 10.22389/0016-7126-2026-1035-9-28-39